Forecasting & Business Charts [Slideshow]

The slideshow below, assembled by Walter Friedman, author of Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters, brings together several forecasting and business charts from the early twentieth century.

More information on many of these charts and the forecasters themselves is in Friedman’s book which you can sample here. If you would like to download a PDF of these images and captions, please right click and save this file.

Fortune Tellers 2
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1 The Babson Compositplot, 1921
2 Irving Fisher's Diagram of the Equation of Exchange, 1912
3 Irving Fisher's Diagram of the Equation of Exchange, 1912
4 John Moody's View of the Economy, 1904
5 James H Brookmire's Barometer, 1907
6 Brookmire's Barometer Chart
7 Harvard Economic Service Chart
Karl Karsten's Map of Business Conditions
9 Brookmire's Cycle Chart of Business and Banking
10 Malcolm Rorty's Depiction of the Business Cycle
11 Babson's Map of the United States for Merchants and Bankers, 1911
12 Brookmire's survey of business conditions in the United States

A new type of forecasting

The years from the turn of the century to World War I were a fertile time for many business analysts, including the scientific management exponent, F. W. Taylor. While some experts sought to improve the inner workings of firms, other tried to make sense of the very atmosphere in which business operated.

Who were the Fortune Tellers?

After the Panic of 1907, economic forecasters began producing newsletters.

Roger W. Babson published Babson’s Reports, which featured the Compositplot of ups and downs. In 1909, John Moody, who is today remembered for his credit rating company, started his own weekly market report. In 1910 Irving Fisher, a pioneer of mathematical economics, published the first of several charts, intended for economic prediction, in the Journal of Economics. Around this same time, James Brookmire, the son of a grocer in St. Louis, founded the Brookmire Economic Chart company and began publishing forecasts on a regular basis.

The most influential forecasting chart of the period belonged to the Harvard Economic Service, which, in 1922, founded a weekly newsletter that featured its A-B-C curve. Along with these charts were other efforts to map economic activity, including Malcolm Rorty’s sketch of the business cycle and several attempts to capture the geography of business within the U.S.

The Babson Compositplot, from 1921

The large shaded areas marked A, B, C, D, E, F, and G, represent depressions below and expansions above the “normal” line. Babson believed that areas of expansion (B, for instance), would be equal to areas of recession (C, for instance) that followed. The chart also contained a wealth of other information, including stock prices, bond prices, and commodity prices.

Source: Roger W. Babson, Business Barometers Used in the Accumulation of Money (Wellesley Hills, Mass: Babson Institute, 1921), insert.

Irving Fisher’s Diagram of the Equation of Exchange for use in forecasting, 1912

While Fisher did not produce a forecasting chart, he did create a diagram to illustrate the Equation of Exchange (MV + M’V’ = PT), which he depicted showing a mechanical balance. The left side of the balance symbolized the left side of the equation, with a small weight standing for M, the money in circulation, and a larger bank book standing for M’, deposits in checking accounts. The distance to the left of the fulcrum of the weight represented the velocity of circulation (V) and the distance of the bankbook, the velocity of circulation of bank deposits (V’).

(continued in the next slide)

Irving Fisher’s Diagram of the Equation of Exchange for use in forecasting, 1912

The volume of trade (T) was represented by a tray on the right, with the index of prices (P) at which these goods were sold, represented by the distance of the tray to the right. The diagram showed the changes in the values for all the components of the Equation of Exchange from 1896 to 1911. To predict the future, Fisher thought, one needed to look especially at recent changes in the bank deposits, which, if rising rapidly, indicated a coming crisis.

Source: Irving Fisher, “‘The Equation of Exchange,’ 1896-1910,” The American Economic Review 1:2 (Jun 1911): p. 299.

John Moody’s view of the economy

In this 1904 chart, Moody encapsulates a firm-centered view of the economy, in this case showing the dominance of the Morgan banking interests and Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. Moody wrote at the top of the chart, “The large circle in the center of the chart indicates the dominant position of the Trust-formed industries of the Nation; directly linked to and representing this dominant force we find two groups of capitalists, the Standard Oil, or Rockefeller, and the Morgan groups.” Moody’s diagram resembled something of a family tree of capitalism.

Source John Moody, The Truth about The Trusts: A Description and Analysis of the American Trust Movement (New York: Moody Publishing Company, 1904), between pages viii and ix.

James H. Brookmire’s Barometer, close-up

James H. Brookmire’s Barometer depicted three indexes of economic sectors—business activity, the stock market (an index of thirty-two stocks), and banking resources. The small print reads, “Condition of business, banking, and the stock market in February, 1907, foretelling the panic of October, 9 months later.”

Source: The Brookmire Economic Chart Company, A Graphic Record of Fundamental, Financial and Business Conditions Since 1885 (St. Louis: Brookmire, 1913).

Brookmire’s Barometer Chart

Here, Brookmire combined his barometer with a chart of values over time for general business (a black line), average stocks (in shaded line), and banking (in sold red).

Source: The Brookmire Economic Chart Company, A Graphic Record of Fundamental, Financial and Business Conditions Since 1885 (St. Louis: Brookmire, 1913).

Harvard Economic Service Chart

Harvard Economic Service Chart, like Brookmire’s Barometer, was a leading indicator model. Persons believed that Group A (representing stocks) forecast Group B (representing business activity); in turn Group B forecasted Group C (representing banking). In this way, the three indexes together created a view of overall business conditions and, in Person’s words, “future tendencies.” The graph above showed historical values from 1903 to 1908.

Source: Warren M. Persons, “The Index: A Statement of Results,” Review of Economic Statistics 1:2 (April 1919): 112.

Karl Karsten’s “Map of Business Conditions”

Economist Karl Karsten showed American states in relative proportion to their population and shaded according to condition of “business activity,” with the darkest states (New Hampshire and Vermont) representing poor levels. The chart revealed the relative geographic distribution of business activity and population—still very weighted toward New England, Pennsylvania (with the rise of the steel industry in Pittsburgh), and Illinois (with the growth of Chicago and its meatpacking plants and grain industry).

Source: Karl Karsten Papers, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

Brookmire’s Cycle Chart of Business and Banking

This chart shows how the ups and downs of business activity tended to deplete and then free up banking resources. As business activity ran from “normal” to “prostrate,” banking resources climbed from “normal” to “abundant” and even “plethoric.” When business activity subsequently climbed to “feverish” and “hazardous,” at the peak of the cycle, banking resources fell to “overextended” and even “critical.”

Source: The Brookmire Economic Chart Company, A Graphic Record of Fundamental, Financial and Business Conditions Since 1885 (St. Louis: Brookmire, 1913).

Malcolm Rorty’s depiction of the business cycle

In this graph, capitalist economies had four discernible phases: revival, prosperity, liquidation, and depression. Above each of these four, Rorty included a list of economic conditions common to each to help readers determine the end of one phase and the start of the next. Note that the chart showed an especially sharp drop of business activity during times of liquidation or crisis.

Source Rorty, Some Problems in Current Economics (1922).

Babson’s Map of the United States for Merchants and Bankers, 1911

The map showed regions where failures were increasing (shown in squares) and business declining (shown in circles).

Brookmire’s survey of business conditions in the United States

Regions were color-coded to indicate whether crop production was good, fair, or poor. Cities were marked with stars if they were numerous business failures, with diamonds if they held dull opportunities for salesmen, and ampersands if the opportunities for salesmen were improving.

Source: The Brookmire Economic Chart Company, A Graphic Record of Fundamental, Financial and Business Conditions Since 1885 (St. Louis, Mo., 1912).

Fortune Tellers 2 thumbnail
Fortune Tellers 1 thumbnail
1 The Babson Compositplot, 1921 thumbnail
2 Irving Fisher's Diagram of the Equation of Exchange, 1912 thumbnail
3 Irving Fisher's Diagram of the Equation of Exchange, 1912 thumbnail
4 John Moody's View of the Economy, 1904 thumbnail
5 James H Brookmire's Barometer, 1907 thumbnail
6 Brookmire's Barometer Chart thumbnail
7 Harvard Economic Service Chart thumbnail
Karl Karsten's Map of Business Conditions thumbnail
9 Brookmire's Cycle Chart of Business and Banking thumbnail
10 Malcolm Rorty's Depiction of the Business Cycle thumbnail
11 Babson's Map of the United States for Merchants and Bankers, 1911 thumbnail
12 Brookmire's survey of business conditions in the United States thumbnail

 

 

Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig Are Shortlisted for 2013 German Business and Economics Book Award

Anat Admati & Martin HellwigThe Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It
Shortlisted for the 2013 Deutsche Wirtschaftsbuchpreis (German Business and Economics Book Award), sponsored by Handelsblatt, the Frankfurt Book Fair, and Goldman Sachs.
The Bankers' New ClothesWhat is wrong with today’s banking system? The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth. The Bankers’ New Clothes examines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid.

Admati and Hellwig seek to engage the broader public in the debate by cutting through the jargon of banking, clearing the fog of confusion, and presenting the issues in simple and accessible terms. The Bankers’ New Clothes calls for ambitious reform and outlines specific and highly beneficial steps that can be taken immediately.

Anat Admati is the George G. C. Parker Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. She serves on the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee and has contributed to the Financial Times, Bloomberg News, and the New York Times. Martin Hellwig is director at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. He was the first chair of the Advisory Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board and the cowinner of the 2012 Max Planck Research Award for his work on financial regulation.

Special Excerpt from “The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It”

The Bankers' New ClothesYesterday marked the fifth anniversary of the Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy in 2008, sending our economy into a tailspin. To note this occasion, we posted a list of some of our Top Banking Books to help people try to figure out what in the world is going on with our economy.
Along that same thread, today we have a special excerpt of The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It by Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig posted below. In this excerpt (pages 11-12 to be exact), Admati and Hellwig address the Lehman Brothers fall and the ripple affect it had on America and even other countries abroad.
As a whole, the book addresses how risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many think that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth, but Admati and Hellwig  argue that we can have a safer and healthier banking system without sacrificing any of the benefits of the system, and at essentially no cost to society.
Check out the excerpt below!

In the run-up to the financial crisis, the debts of many large banks financed 97 percent or more of their assets. Lehman Brothers in the United States, Hypo Real Estate in Germany, Dexia in Belgium and France, and UBS in Switzerland had many hundreds of billions of dollars, euros, or Swiss francs in debt. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. The other three avoided bankruptcy only because they were bailed out by their governments.


The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy caused severe disruption and damage to the global financial system. Stock prices imploded, investors withdrew from money market funds, money market funds refused to renew their loans to banks, and banks stopped lending to each other. Banks furiously tried to sell assets, which further depressed prices. Within two weeks, many banks faced the prospect of default.


To prevent a complete meltdown of the system, governments and central banks all over the world provided financial institutions with funding and with guarantees for the institutions’ debts. These interventions stopped the decline, but the downturn in economic activity was still the sharpest since the Great Depression. Anton Valukas, the lawyer appointed by the bankruptcy court to investigate Lehman Brothers, put it succinctly: “Everybody got hurt. The entire economy has suffered from the fall of Lehman Brothers . . . the whole world.”


In the fall of 2008, many financial institutions besides Lehman Brothers were also vulnerable. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) that “out of maybe . . . 13 of the most important financial institutions in the United States, 12 were at risk of failure within a period of a week or two.” Some or all of the major banks in Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom failed or were at significant risk of failing had their governments not bailed them out.


Accounts of the crisis often focus on the various breakdowns of bank funding between August 2007 and October 2008. Much bank funding consisted of very short-term debt. Banks were therefore vulnerable to the risk that this debt would not be renewed. The deeper reason for the breakdowns, however, was that banks were highly indebted. When banks suffered losses, investors, including other financial institutions, lost confidence and cut off funding, fearing that the banks might become unable to repay their debts.


The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy itself heightened investors’ concerns by showing that even a large financial institution might not be bailed out, and therefore that default of such an institution was a real possibility.


The problem posed by some banks being regarded as too big to fail is greater today than it was in 2008. Since then, the largest U.S. banks have become much larger. On March 31, 2012, the debt of JPMorgan Chase was valued at $2.13 trillion and that of Bank of America at $1.95 trillion, more than three times the debt of Lehman Brothers. The debts of the five largest banks in the United States totaled around $8 trillion. These figures would have been even larger under the accounting rules used in Europe.


In Europe, the largest banks are of similar size. Because European economies are smaller than that of the United States, the problem is even more serious there. Relative to the overall economy, banks are significantly larger in Europe than in the United States, especially in some of the smaller countries. In Ireland and Iceland before the crisis, the banking systems had become so large that, when the banks failed, these countries’ economies collapsed.


The traumatic Lehman experience has scared most governments into believing that large global banks must not be allowed to fail. Should any of these large banks get into serious difficulties, however, we may discover that they are not only too big to fail but also too big to save. There will be no good options.


The consequences of letting a large bank fail are probably more severe today than in the case of Lehman Brothers in 2008, but saving them might cripple their countries. The experiences of Ireland and Spain provide a taste of what can happen if large banking systems have to be saved by their governments. In both countries, the governments were unable to deal with their banking problems on their own, so they had to ask for support from the International Monetary Fund and from the European Union.

The Fifth Anniversary of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy

The Fifth Anniversary of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy and Our Top 10 Books on Banking

Since the economic downturn in America, people have been paying much more attention to what is going on with their government, their spending, and most certainly their banks. As today is the fifth anniversary of the Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy (the largest bankruptcy filing in the history of the United States), we here at the Press thought we would help you all out a little by suggesting some of our best publications on bank failures, economic regulations, and financial crises. Fun topic for a lazy Sunday, right?
Click on the titles below to learn more about them, and don’t forget to check back tomorrow for an exclusive excerpt from our newest banking book this year: The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig.

The Banker's New Clothes1) The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It
By: Anat Admati & Martin Hellwig
What is wrong with today’s banking system? The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth. The Bankers’ New Clothes examines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid.

2) DeDebt's Dominionbt’s Dominion: A History of Bankruptcy Law in America
By: David A. Skeel Jr.
David Skeel provides the first complete account of the remarkable journey American bankruptcy law has taken from its beginnings in 1800, when Congress lifted the country’s first bankruptcy code right out of English law, to the present day.

 

3) HowHow Big Banks Fail Big Banks Fail and What to Do about It
By: Darrell Duffie
How Big Banks Fail and What to Do about It examines how large dealer banks (like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs) collapse and how we can prevent the need to bail them out.

 

4) UnWhysettled Account: The Evolution of Banking in the Industrialized World since 1800
By: Richard S. Grossman
In Unsettled Account, Richard Grossman takes the first truly comparative look at the development of commercial banking systems over the past two centuries in Western Europe, the United States, Canada, Japan, and Australia. Grossman focuses on four major elements that have contributed to banking evolution: crises, bailouts, mergers, and regulations.

 

Rochet_Why11115) Why Are There So Many Banking Crises? The Politics and Policy of Bank Regulation
By: Jean-Charles Rochet
Almost every country in the world has sophisticated systems to prevent banking crises. Yet such crises–and the massive financial and social damage they can cause–remain common throughout the world. Jean-Charles Rochet, one of the world’s leading authorities on banking regulation, makes the case that, although many banking crises are precipitated by financial deregulation and globalization, political interference often causes–and almost always exacerbates–banking crises.

6) AppAppeasing Bankerseasing Bankers: Financial Caution on the Road to War
By: Jonathan Kirshner
The financial world values economic stability above all else, and crises and war threaten that stability. Appeasing Bankers shows that, when faced with the prospect of war or international political crisis, national financial communities favor caution and demonstrate a marked aversion to war.

 

7) CodCodes of Financees of Finance: Engineering Derivatives in a Global Bank
By: Vincent Antonin Lépinay
Codes of Finance takes readers behind the scenes of the equity derivatives business at one of the world’s leading investment banks before the crisis, providing a detailed firsthand account of the creation, marketing, selling, accounting, and management of these financial instruments–and of how they ultimately created havoc inside and outside the bank.

 

Balancing the Banks8) Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis
By: Mathias Dewatripont, Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole
Translated by: Keith Tribe
Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.

 

9) BankBanking on the Futureing on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking
By: Howard Davies & David Green
Banking on the Future provides a fascinating insider’s look into how central banks have evolved and why they are critical to the functioning of market economies. The book asks whether, in light of the recent economic fallout, the central banking model needs radical reform.

 

10) Banksprincetonlogo and Politics in America from the Revolution to the Civil War
By: Bray Hammond
Bray Hammond investigates into the role of banking in the formation of American society. Hammond, who was assistant secretary of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 1944 to 1950, presents this 771-page book with a definitive account of how banking evolved in the United States in the context of the nation’s political and social development.

New Economics and Finance Catalog!

We invite you to browse and download our new economics and finance catalog!
http://press.princeton.edu/catalogs/econ13.pdf

Of particular interest are some of our forthcoming titles including Benn Steil’s remarkable The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order, Ben S. Bernanke’s insightful The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis, and Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig’s engaging and accessible The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It. Also note Justin Yifu Lin’s The Quest for Prosperity: How Developing Economies Can Take Off. Interwoven with insights, observations, and stories from Lin’s travels as chief economist of the World Bank and his reflections on China’s rise, this book provides a road map and hope for those countries engaged in their own quest for prosperity.

Our catalog also exhibits critical textbooks including David M. Kreps’ rigorous Microeconomic Foundations I: Choice and Competitive Markets, Steven Tadelis’ comprehensive Game Theory: An Introduction, Ariel Rubinstein’s essential second edition Lecture Notes in Microeconomic Theory: The Economic Agent, and Michael Wickens’ superior second edition Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach.

If you’re interested in hearing more about our economics and finance titles, sign up with ease here: http://press.princeton.edu/subscribe/ Your email address will remain confidential!

We’ll see everyone at the meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations January 4-6 in San Diego, CA. Come visit us at booth 308! Be sure to stop by Saturday, January 5 at 1:00 p.m. for a book signing with Justin Yifu Lin, author of The Quest for Prosperity: How Developing Economies Can Take Off.