With a $1 billion dollar payday on the line, we predict there will be more people filling out March Madness brackets this year than ever before, so it isn’t surprising that everyone is looking to mathematician Tim Chartier for tips and tricks on how to pick the winners. Tim has been using math to fill out March Madness brackets with his students for years and his new book Math Bytes will have an entire section devoted to best tips and tricks. In the meantime, we invite you to check out these tips from an interview at iCrunchData News.
ICrunchData: What are a few variables that are used that are out of the ordinary?
Chartier: “In terms of past years, it helps if you look at scores in buckets. For instance, you decide close games are within 3 points and count those as ties. Medium wins are 4 to 10 points and could as 6 points and anything bigger is an 11 point win. That’s worked really well in some cases and reduces some of the noise of scores.”
“Here is another that comes out of our most current research. This year’s tournament will enable us to test it in brackets. We tried it on conference tournaments and it had good success. We use statistics (specifically Dean Oliver’s 4 Factors) and look at that as a point, in this case in 4D space. Then we find another team that has a point in the fourth dimension closest to that team’s point. This means they play similarly. Suddenly, we can begin to look at who similar teams win and lose against.”